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The climate of the North Central U.S. is driven by a combination of factors, including atmospheric circulation patterns, the region’s complex topography which extends from the High Rockies to the Great Plains, and variations in hydrology. Together, these factors determine the sustainability of the region’s ecosystems and the services that they provide communities. In order to understand the vulnerability of the region’s ecosystems to change, it is necessary to have reliable projections of future climate conditions. To address this need, researchers first examined past and present variations in climate and assessed the ability of climate models to effectively project future climate conditions for the region. Second,...
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Conservation and natural resource managers require information about potential future climate changes for the areas they manage, in terms that are relevant for the specific biotic and environmental resources likely to be affected by climate change. We produced a suite of data sets that provide managers with climate and climate-derived data and a visualization approach that allows managers to map where 1) a managed area's potential future climate is located on today's landscape (i.e., the locations of the modern analogues of future climate) and 2) the areas to which the present climate (and habitat) of managed areas are projected to move. We produced downscaled climate data from historical (1901-2000) data sets and...
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This project produced long simulations (multi-decadal to multi-century in scale) of past, present, and future regional climate at a grid spacing of 50 kilometers (km) over North America and at a grid spacing of 15 km over western and eastern North America. These model runs were the first attempt to achieve coordinated, high-resolution downscaling with such wide geographic and temporal coverage. The objectives of this project were to (1) understand the nature of climate change and variability, (2) quantify the climate-driven responses and feedbacks of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, wildfire, the hydrologic cycle, and alpine glaciers, and (3) provide climate information in a form that is useful to a wide range...
The Lake-Atmosphere Interactions project (LAIP) develops and applies regional and global climate models and surface process models in the context of broadly interdisciplinary research aimed at addressing past, present and future climate hypotheses, questions and issues and at providing climate data for applied research. The project research is conducted across a wide range of temporal (the past 106 years and into the future) and spatial (global to local) scales. Project objectives are achieved by developing and applying a variety of numerical models, visualization techniques, web-based applications and statistical methods to quantify and explain interactions between the atmosphere, lakes, aquatic and terrestrial...
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Projecting the effects of climate change on plant and animal species distributions and abundance is critical to successful long‐term conservation and restoration efforts. There have been significant recent advances made in the areas of: (1) climate forecasts; (2) habitat niche modeling; (3) mechanistic modeling; and (4) observation techniques and networks. However, projections of biological change are fundamentally limited by a lack of integration and inter‐comparison between these various forecasting approaches. The proposed working group will focus on integrating ecological forecasting methods for two well studied invasive species: cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). Our goal is to...
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Fisheries and aquatic habitats throughout the United States are in dire need of protection or restoration because human activities have resulted in severe degradation of those habitats. Further, future climatic changes will continue to affect human land-use, temperature, and water flows. Natural resource managers need to identify and prioritize habitats so that limited time and funding can be focused on habitats that are in most need of protection both now and in the future, based on projected climate changes. This project was comprised of a team of scientists from the US Geological Survey, Kansas State University, Michigan State University, Penn State University, the University of Minnesota-Duluth, the University...


    map background search result map search result map Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat A Visualization Approach for Projecting Future Climate Distributions in North America Understanding Extreme Climate Events in the North Central U.S. Downscaled Climate Change Modeling for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) Understanding Extreme Climate Events in the North Central U.S. Science to Inform Future Management of the Nation's Fisheries and Aquatic Habitat Downscaled Climate Change Modeling for the Conterminous United States (National Assessment) A Visualization Approach for Projecting Future Climate Distributions in North America