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THE RISING RISK OF DROUGHT. Droughts of the twenty-first century are characterized by hotter temperatures, longer duration, and greater spatial extent, and are increasingly exacerbated by human demands for water. This situation increases the vulnerability of ecosystems to drought, including a rise in drought-driven tree mortality globally (Allen et al. 2015) and anticipated ecosystem transformations from one state to another—for example, forest to a shrubland (Jiang et al. 2013). When a drought drives changes within ecosystems, there can be a ripple effect through human communities that depend on those ecosystems for critical goods and services (Millar and Stephenson 2015). For example, the “Millennium Drought”...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
The statistically-based estimates of streamflow included here are for the headwater watersheds in the study area described in LaFontaine and others (2019), and were developed using the ordinary kriging methodology described in Farmer (2016). There are four files included that describe the maximum, minimum, mean, and median estimated streamflow for each headwater on a daily time step for the period 10/1/1980-9/30/2010. A GIS shapefile of the headwaters is also included here. Farmer, W.H., 2016, Ordinary kriging as a tool to estimate historical daily streamflow records: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 20, no. 7, p. 2721-2735, accessed September 27, 2017, at https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2721-2016. LaFontaine,...
In this research, we characterized the changes in the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) monthly total water storage anomaly (TWSA) in 18 surface basins and 12 principal aquifers in the conterminous United States during 2003–2016. Regions with high variability in storage were identified. Ten basins and four aquifers showed significant changes in storage. Eight surface basins and eight aquifers were found to show decadal stability in storage. A pixel-based analysis of storage showed that the New England basin and North Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer showed the largest area under positive storage change. By contrast, the Lower Colorado and California basins showed the largest area under negative change....
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
In the past, hydrologic modeling of surface water resources has mainly focused on simulating the hydrologic cycle at local to regional catchment modeling domains. There now exists a level of maturity among the catchment, global water security, and land surface modeling communities such that these communities are converging toward continental domain hydrologic models. This commentary, written from a catchment hydrology community perspective, provides a review of progress in each community toward this achievement, identifies common challenges the communities face, and details immediate and specific areas in which these communities can mutually benefit one another from the convergence of their research perspectives....
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
Abstract (from http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169414010087): Monthly calibrated values of the Hamon PET coefficient ( C) are determined for 109,951 hydrologic response units (HRUs) across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The calibrated coefficient values are determined by matching calculated mean monthly Hamon PET to mean monthly free-water surface evaporation. For most locations and months the calibrated coefficients are larger than the standard value reported by Hamon. The largest changes in the coefficients were for the late winter/early spring and fall months, whereas the smallest changes were for the summer months. Comparisons of PET computed using the standard value of C and computed...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Hamon,
Potential evapotranspiration,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Science Tools For Managers,
The southeastern United States was modeled to produce historical and potential future simulations of streamflow statistics using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as part of the study documented in LaFontaine and others (2019). Hydrologic simulations using one observation-based historical climate dataset (Maurer and others, 2002), 13 used historical climate simulations using statistically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and 45 used potential future climate simulations using statistically downscaled CMIP5 GCMs for four representative concentration pathways were used for the computation of 52 hydrologic statistics of streamflow...
This data set serves to archive the data, analysis and models of the associated publication entitled “Calibration of the USGS National Hydrologic Model in Ungauged Basins Using Statistical At-Site Streamflow Simulations” as published in the Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. The input data files included here as comma-separated values contain measured streamflow, streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System calibrated to measured streamflow, streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System calibrated to streamflow simulated by pooled ordinary kriging, and streamflow simulated by pooled ordinary kriging at 1,410 streamgage locations across the United States. These data sets, built...
Categories: Data;
Tags: USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
United States,
Water Resources,
streamflow simulation
This data release contains output of the initial calibration of the conterminous United States (CONUS) application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) as implemented in the National Hydrologic Model (NHM) infrastructure (Regan et al, 2018). The PRMS version 5.0.0 hydrologic simulation code was used with the accompanying parameter files in the NHM infrastructure to produce the attached output files. Model input climate drivers include climate data derived from the Daymet gridded data set version 2 (Thornton et al., 2014) with values spatially-distributed to the HRUs using the USGS Geo Data Portal (https://cida.usgs.gov/gdp/; Blodgett et al., 2011). The parameter values are maintained in the National...
Categories: Data;
Tags: Hydrologic processes,
Hydrology,
Mathematical modeling,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
United States,
This data release contains inputs and outputs for hydrologic simulations of the conterminous United States (CONUS) using the National Hydrologic Model (NHM) application of the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) in ASCII and binary format and explanatory graphics in pdf format. These simulations were developed to provide estimates of water availability for historical conditions for the period October 1, 1980 to September 30, 2016 for five different calibration configurations; the first three years of the simulation should be considered the initialization period and should not be used for subsequent analysis. The five versions of model parameters and associated model output included in this data release are...
Categories: Data;
Tags: Hydrologic processes,
Hydrology,
Hydrology,
Mathematical modeling,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
Abstract: The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Data Visualization & Tools,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Science Tools For Managers,
South Central CASC,
Water, Coasts and Ice
Streamflow is declining in many parts of the United States (US) due to factors including groundwater pumping, land use change, and climate change. Streamflow depletion, a reduction in groundwater discharge to a stream due to human activities such as pumping and/or land use change, tends to evolve slowly and can be entirely invisible for many years to decades. This is because streamflow depletion can be masked by the natural and/or climate change-induced variability in streamflow, and groundwater storage can buffer the impacts on streams. The negative effects on both anthropogenic and ecological systems can evolve over decades or more, and specific causes and potential solutions to these issues are often difficult...
Water management planners and researchers throughout the world rely on hydrological models to forecast and simulate streamflow hydrology and hydrological events. These simulations are used to inform water management, municipal planning, and ecosystem conservation decisions, as well as to investigate potential effects of climate and land-use change on hydrology.
Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has a long history of advancing the traditional Earth science disciplines and identifying opportunities to integrate USGS science across disciplines to address complex societal problems. The USGS science strategy for 2007-2017 laid out key challenges in disciplinary and interdisciplinary arenas, culminating in a call for increased focus on a number of crosscutting science directions. Ten years on, to further the goal of integrated science and at the request of the Executive Leadership Team (ELT), a workshop with three dozen invited scientists spanning different disciplines and career stages in the Bureau convened on February 7-10, 2017, at the USGS John Wesley...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation
This data release contains inputs for and outputs from hydrologic simulations of the southeastern U.S. using the Monthly Water Balance Model, the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), and statistically-based methods. These simulations were developed to provide estimates of water availability and statistics of streamflow for historical and potential future conditions for an area of approximately 1.16 million square miles. These model input and output data are intended to accompany a U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report (LaFontaine and others, 2019); they include four types of data: 1) model input parameters, 2) model output statistics, 3) GIS files of the model hydrologic response units...
This dataset includes model projections of seasonal temperature (T), precipitation (P), and runoff (R) from 214 climate simulations from coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP) 3 and CMIP5 scenarios for 19-year periods centered on 2030, 2060, and 2090. The summaries of the climate model projections are presented as percentiles (5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th) of seasonal (October through March, January through March, April through June, and July through September) changes in T, P, and R for the 214 climate models. The metrics are calculated from variables previously summarized across the conterminous United States for hydrologic response units of the Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling (Viger...
Categories: Data;
Tags: General Circulation Model,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
United States,
air temperature,
precipitation (atmospheric),
Glaciers are a central component to the hydrology of many areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. Glacier melt plays a crucial role in the movement of nutrients through a landscape and into the ocean, and the flow of water into streams that sustain many species. As air temperatures rise, increased rates of glacier melt may have significant impacts to the hydrology and ecology in these areas. This project aims to broaden our understanding of the role of glaciers in the hydrology of Alaska and Washington state and incorporate this knowledge into two types of models that simulate past and future scenarios of water flow. The project team aims to develop a public web portal to allow users to explore content, access...
Categories: Project;
Types: Map Service,
OGC WFS Layer,
OGC WMS Layer,
OGC WMS Service;
Tags: 2015,
Alaska,
Alaska,
Alaska CASC,
CASC,
This data release contains inputs for and outputs from hydrologic simulations for the conterminous United States (CONUS) using the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) version 5.1.0 and the USGS National Hydrologic Model Infrastructure (NHMI, Regan and others, 2018). These simulations were developed to provide estimates of the water budget for the period 1950 to 2010. Specific file types include: 1) input atmospheric forcings of minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, and daily precipitation accumulation derived from a gridded observation-based dataset developed by Maurer and others (2002), 2) input parameter files for static and dynamic land cover conditions, and 3) output files of simulated water...
Categories: Data;
Tags: Hydrologic processes,
Hydrology,
Hydrology,
Mathematical modeling,
USGS Science Data Catalog (SDC),
The FVR_2016 folder contains the input files needed to run the Fena Valley Reservoir water-balance model and a README_FVR_2016.txt document that describes the contents of this archive and the execution of the water-balance model.
The increasing availability of climate projections provides natural resource managers and scientists with a number of scenarios from which to estimate variability in hydrologic response to future climatic conditions. This presents a need for consistent and efficient conversion of climate data into model-ready format, archiving and indexing of model simulation results, and the visualization and summation of model simulation results. Furthermore, decision-makers need this information at specific locations and for specific periods of record to effectively manage their water resources. This final report summarizes a collaborative effort to help address these issues through the construction of the Monthly Water Balance...
Categories: Publication;
Types: Citation;
Tags: Consumptive Use,
Data Visualization & Tools,
Report: Report,
Rivers, Streams and Lakes,
Science Tools For Managers,
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