This project will engage researchers from the University of Idaho to assist with a set of analysis tasks that will improve understanding of seabird population dynamics and environmental drivers at a regional scale based on prior survey efforts that have been focused at a colony scale. Specifically, we envision the development of a population model for a couple of index species like murres and kittiwakes, including evaluation of spatial clustering of populations that co-vary, in order to: 1) asses implications of covariates with identified mechanisms and appropriate temporal (pre-breeding condition, summer, rearing, overwinter survival, etc.) and spatial scales; 2) evaluate the feasibility of combining seabirds into foraging guilds and determine whether patterns assessed are similar within guilds; and 3) improve understanding of population dynamics of key seabird species on the Maritime Refuge and implications for those populations at the broader landscape. This analysis will involve close collaboration with scientists from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and NOAA Fisheries to explore how connections can be made that might afford improvements in detecting changes in the ecosystem. Pending results from these three initial focal areas and availability of funds, analysts from University of Idaho may also collaborate with NOAA Fisheries researchers evaluating diet information from fish and seabirds to strengthen understanding of forage fish populations to improve management of the seabirds and commercial fish species in the region.
