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Pinyon-juniper basal area, climate and demographics data from National Forest Inventory plots and projected under future density and climate conditions

Data for journal manuscript: Dry forest decline is driven by both declining recruitment and increasing mortality in response to warm, dry conditions


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Noel, A.R., Shriver, R.K., Crausbay, S.D., and Bradford, J.B., 2022, Pinyon-Juniper basal area, climate and demographics data from National Forest Inventory plots and projected under future density and climate conditions: U.S. Geological Survey data release,


These data were compiled to help understand how climate change may impact dryland pinyon-juniper ecosystems in coming decades, and how resource management might be able to minimize those impacts. Objective(s) of our study were to model the demographic rates of PJ woodlands to estimate the areas that may decline in the future vs. those that will be stable. We quantified populations growth rates across broad geographic areas, and identified the relative roles of recruitment and mortality in driving potential future changes in population viability in 5 tree species that are major components of these dry forests. We used this demographic model to project pinyon-juniper population stability under future climate conditions, assess how robust [...]


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JUMO_Demog_Data.csv 1.13 MB text/csv
JUOS_Demog_Data.csv 4.64 MB text/csv
JUSC_Demog_Data.csv 1.23 MB text/csv
PIED_Demog_Data.csv 3.92 MB text/csv
PIMO_Demog_Data.csv 1.56 MB text/csv


The purpose of these data are to identify whether pinyon-juniper populations will undergo ecological transformation under changing future climate conditions, to estimate the potential benefits of reducing forest density for increasing population growth rates, and to assess the magnitude of uncertainty in our projected results. These data were created to identify where resource management may help enhance the viability of PJ woodlands in coming decades.


The author(s) of these data request that data users contact them regarding intended use and to assist with understanding limitations and interpretation. Unless otherwise stated, all data, metadata and related materials are considered to satisfy the quality standards relative to the purpose for which the data were collected. Although these data and associated metadata have been reviewed for accuracy and completeness and approved for release by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no warranty expressed or implied is made regarding the display or utility of the data for other purposes, nor on all computer systems, nor shall the act of distribution constitute any such warranty.

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DOI doi:10.5066/P9FIGKFM

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