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Climate drivers of rapid ecological change at the landscape scale over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A.

Dates

Publication Date
Time Period
2022-03-31

Citation

Shelley D. Crausbay, Amanda M. Kissel, Patrick T. Freeman, and Eric Stofferahn, 2022, Climate drivers of rapid ecological change at the landscape scale over the last 21,000 years in the Middle and Southern Rockies, U.S.A.: , https://doi.org/10.21429/t51y-8s44.

Summary

These model objects are the outputs of three Boosted Regression Tree models (for three different time periods) to explore the role of climate change and variability in driving ecological change and transformation. Response variables were the proportion of sites in each ecoregion with peak rates of change at 100-year time steps. Predictor variables included temperature anomaly, temperature trend, temperature variability, precipitation anomaly, precipitation trend, precipitation variability and ecoregion, also at 100-yr time steps. Models focused on the most distant time periods (0-21000 BP and 7500 - 21000 BP) show that rapid vegetation change was initiated across these landscapes once a 2 ℃ temperature increase (positive temperature [...]

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Attached Files

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paleoBRT_0-7500.rds 11.64 MB application/x-gzip
paleoBRT_0-21000.rds 12.85 MB application/x-gzip
paleoBRT_7500-21000.rds 13.46 MB application/x-gzip

Purpose

We leveraged existing open source paleorecords of vegetation change across the Middle and Southern Rockies, along with open source paleoclimate data, to better understand rapid ecological change and ecological transformation. This work will help to anticipate when and where rapid vegetation change and transformation will be likely in the future. Models show that rapid turnover in the vegetation community was initiated across both ecoregions once a 2 ℃ increase in temperature was realized and again recently with reduced rainfall.

Map

Spatial Services

ScienceBase WMS

Communities

  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers
  • North Central CASC

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Data source
Input directly

Additional Information

Citation Extension

citationTypeData Release
parts
typeDOI
valuehttps://doi.org/10.21429/t51y-8s44

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