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Projections of 5 coupled scenarios of land-use change and groundwater sustainability for California's Central Coast (2001-2061) - LUCAS-W model

Couplings between land-use development and groundwater sustainability determine long-term resilience of water supplies


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Van Schmidt, N.D., Wilson, T.S., and Langridge, R., 2021, Projections of 5 coupled scenarios of land-use change and groundwater sustainability for California's Central Coast (2001-2061) - LUCAS-W model: U.S. Geological Survey data release,


LUCAS-W is a scenario-based simulation model of coupled land use change and associated water demand for California's Central Coast region from 2001-2061. The model is a verison of the LUCAS model, which uses the SyncroSim software framework (Software documentation available at, that contains a new coupling with statistical software R ( to enable dynamic feedbacks between land-use change, resulting water demand, and water availability. The model was parameterized with land-use change and water use empirically estimated from county-scale historic data, as well as results from dozens of local agencies’ groundwater modeling efforts. It was used to assess [...]

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Point of Contact :
Tamara Wilson
Process Contact :
Nathan D Van Schmidt
Originator :
Nathan D Van Schmidt, Tamara Wilson, Ruth Langridge
Publisher :
U.S. Geological Survey
Distributor :
U.S. Geological Survey - ScienceBase
SDC Data Owner :
Western Geographic Science Center
USGS Mission Area :

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The sustainable management of groundwater is inextricably linked to land use-land cover change and to the long-term resilience of local communities. There is a pressing need to understand how the dynamic couplings and feedbacks between institutional rules to manage the resource, land use changes, and groundwater storage affect water availability and sustainability, and to assess approaches to enhance the resilience of these coupled systems. California’s Central Coast, a major agricultural area that is almost entirely dependent on local groundwater supplies, provides a microcosm for understanding such linkages. The LUCAS-W model produces land use change maps and water sustainability estimates at a regional scale under a variety of different management strategies, enabling a regional-scale understanding of the coupled processes of water sustainability and development

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DOI doi:10.5066/P9209XW4

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