This dataset shows an estimate of the probability of human-caused fire occurrence, based on 30 years of occurrence data using a MaxEnt model based on several factors including distance to roads, urban areas, vegetation type, and climate. This near-term estimate is based on projecting the Maxent model developed on current climate conditions onto downscaled climate projections from RegCM3 based on ECHAM5 boundary conditions. The model performed reasonably well, with an AUC of 0.704 Significant predictive factors include distance to highways, distance to major rivers, distance to urban areas, distance to roads, and winter precipitation. Caution should be exercised in interpreting this dataset, as it is based on an association between [...]
