Adaptation Strategies in the Face of Climate-Driven Ecological Transformation: Case Studies from Arctic Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains
Climate Change-Driven Transformations in Human and Natural Systems: Case Studies to Accelerate Proactive Adaptation Responses
Dates
Release Date
2019
Start Date
2020-05-18
End Date
2023-05-17
Summary
Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, and will likely trigger significant and permanent changes in both ecological and human communities. Such transformations are already occurring in the Arctic region of Alaska, where temperatures are warming at twice the global average and causing some ecosystems to transition to new states. Arctic warming has led to coastal erosion that has forced human communities to relocate and a loss of sea ice that has forced marine mammals, such as polar bears and walrus, to adapt to a more terrestrial mode of living. Meanwhile, in the Great Plains of the U.S., past interactions between land and water use during the Dust Bowl and recent high rates of depletion of the Ogallala aquifer due to irrigation [...]
Summary
Climate change is already affecting ecosystems, and will likely trigger significant and permanent changes in both ecological and human communities. Such transformations are already occurring in the Arctic region of Alaska, where temperatures are warming at twice the global average and causing some ecosystems to transition to new states. Arctic warming has led to coastal erosion that has forced human communities to relocate and a loss of sea ice that has forced marine mammals, such as polar bears and walrus, to adapt to a more terrestrial mode of living. Meanwhile, in the Great Plains of the U.S., past interactions between land and water use during the Dust Bowl and recent high rates of depletion of the Ogallala aquifer due to irrigation for agriculture demonstrate how ecological and social systems interact. The Great Plains could also be at risk of future transformation as the climate changes.
Ecological transformations present novel challenges to resource managers and the communities that rely on natural resources for subsistence, economic, cultural, and aesthetic benefits. They are difficult to predict and, therefore, hard to incorporate into management planning. The goal of this project is to synthesize lessons learned from how communities, individuals, natural resource agencies, and industry (e.g., energy development, agriculture, ranching) have responded to past and on-going ecological transformations in two very different environments—Arctic Alaska and the Great Plains. In the Arctic case study, researchers will synthesize information on how communities are responding to dramatic ecological transformations that have already taken place or are ongoing. In the Great Plains case study, researchers will focus on understanding drought- and land use-driven transformations and the potential for proactive adaptation planning. In both cases, researchers will explore a subset of central themes, such as novel conservation practices in transformed ecosystems; the challenges associated with managing for species that may be shifting to new areas; new, climate-driven economic opportunities for industry that also have consequences for conservation; and shifts in federal oversight and local leadership for management in transformed ecosystems.
As part of this project, researchers will engage public agencies, rural and indigenous communities, and industries to gain a range of perspectives. They will also explore variations in response rates and their root causes, such as rapid responses in industry to new opportunities or slower response rates in agencies that are more constrained. The results of this project will inform conservation planners and resource managers about the opportunities and challenges of novel strategies for responding to climate change in heavily-impacted ecosystems.
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AbsarokaRange_MT-WY_DianeRenkin_NPS.jpg “Absaroka Range - Credit: Diane Renkin, NPS”
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We seek support from the National Climate Adaptation Science Center to develop and share case studies and lessons from real-world adaptation responses to climatedriven ecological transformations. We expect these cases, which will be developed with stakeholders, will help promote proactive planning and effective responses by these same stakeholders as well as resource managers in other regions. Using a combination of synthesis, interviews, and stakeholder/practitioner engagement, this work will focus on two geographies: the Arctic region of Alaska and the U.S. Great Plains. Arctic social-ecological systems have already experienced dramatic transitions in response to climate change, including those in ice or snow-free lands and waters previously managed for ice-dependent species and livelihoods, or in coastal communities that have been impacted by storm surges and coastal erosion. We argue that active adaptation responses by communities, industry, and resource managers in the Arctic can serve as models to help managers in other regions better prepare for dramatic changes. In the Great Plains, past interactions between land and water use during the Dust Bowl (1950s) and recent high rates of depletion of the Ogallala aquifer associated with irrigation for agriculture demonstrate how climate and human land and water use can dramatically change systems and resource availability, providing tangible parallels to the concept of ecological transformation. We suggest the massive scale of these past and anticipated impacts will motivate greater attention to the potential for climate-driven transformations, and promote anticipatory planning efforts that can help conserve and restore grassland biodiversity as these changes unfold. These two regions provide contrasts in the strengths of climate vs. human drivers of transformational change, with similarities in key risks, such as the potential for other stressors (e.g., development pressure, spread of invasive species) to increase as systems transform. Methods for synthesis and case study development will be tailored to each region, and will include literature review, semistructured interviews, focus groups, and informal meetings. Expected products include: 1) peerreviewed syntheses of lessons learned from these heavily-affected systems (1 per region); 2) storytelling of findings via digital and leveraged national media; and 3) assessments of key conservation approaches in transforming system that will not only inform the case studies, but also identify research needs for continued work in these two geographies.