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USGS Data Release: Land change and carbon balance scenario projections for the State of California - model


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Sleeter, B.M., 2019, Land change and carbon balance scenario projections for the State of California: U.S. Geological Survey data release,


Scenario-based simulation model projections of land use change, ecosystem carbon stocks, and ecosystem carbon fluxes for the State of California from 2001-2101 using the SyncroSim software framework, see for software documentation. We explored four land-use scenarios and two radiative forcing scenarios (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs) as simulated by four earth system models (i.e. climate models). Results can be used to understand the drivers of change in ecosystem carbon storage over short, medium, and long (e.g. 100 year) time intervals. See Sleeter et al. (2019) Global Change Biology (doi: 10.1111/gcb.14677) for detailed descriptions of scenarios.


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Terrestrial ecosystems are an important sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), sequestering ~30% of annual anthropogenic emissions and slowing the rise of atmospheric CO2. However, the future direction and magnitude of the land sink is highly uncertain. We examined how historical and projected changes in climate, land use, and ecosystem disturbances affect the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in California over the period 2001-2100. We modeled 32 unique scenarios, spanning four land-use and two radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by four global climate models.



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