* The PFLCC, in conjunction with GeoAdaptive (GA) and Geodesign Technologies (GDT), completed a set of comprehensive conservation planning scenarios for the state of Florida in 2014. The scenarios considered variations in climate change, urban growth, conservation funding, and conservation strategy and were designed using a stakeholder-based process involving both the science advisory board and steering committee of the PFLCC. This represents the first statewide effort to assess likely alternative futures for conservation considering an array of financial, biological, climatological, and urban growth pattern conditions. Land use and land tenure changes were simulated to systematically allocate potential future conservation and development in a spatially explicit format. The model simulates real estate markets, conservation strategy, and funding levels; outputting models in map form of future land use, tenure, and cover in years 2020, 2040, and 2060. Conservation allocations are based on both fee-title and conservation easements. The conservation priorities and mechanisms expressed in these scenarios are based on a wide set of contributing factors, and simulated conservation is purposefully limited to projected budgets.
The final report details the methods and results of an impact assessment based on simulations of potential future states of land use, land cover, and conservation in Florida. The methods used to develop four scenarios that simulated future development and conservation under varying assumptions, ranging from conservation-less development to greater conservation through changes in conservation policy that favor increased use of conservation easements as well as increased densification instead of urban sprawl for future development patterns. Overall impacts were calculated as changes in land use through urbanization and land cover due to sea level rise. Impacts to species habitat were based on modeled habitat distributions for focal species. A methodology for all prioritizing species habitat for conservation was also developed for a subset of species in preparation for eventual modeling of conservation targets as metrics
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