* The PFLCC, in conjunction with GeoAdaptive (GA) and Geodesign Technologies (GDT), completed a set of comprehensive conservation planning scenarios for the state of Florida in 2014. The scenarios considered variations in climate change, urban growth, conservation funding, and conservation strategy and were designed using a stakeholder-based process involving both the science advisory board and steering committee of the PFLCC. This represents the first statewide effort to assess likely alternative futures for conservation considering an array of financial, biological, climatological, and urban growth pattern conditions. Land use and land tenure changes were simulated to systematically allocate potential future conservation and development in a spatially explicit format. The model simulates real estate markets, conservation strategy, and funding levels; outputting models in map form of future land use, tenure, and cover in years 2020, 2040, and 2060. Conservation allocations are based on both fee-title and conservation easements. The conservation priorities and mechanisms expressed in these scenarios are based on a wide set of contributing factors, and simulated conservation is purposefully limited to projected budgets.
GIS Data for the associated project includes:
Species potential distribution data for the focal species included in the project. These GIS data were provided by the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission using 2003 land cover data. Focal species modeled include the cuban snowy plover, gopher tortoise Florida scrub-jay, Anastasia Island beach mouse, Marian's and Worthington's marsh wrens, Audubon's crested caracara, Florida black bear, Southeastern beach mouse, Eastern indigo snake, Florida sandhill crane, and Florida panther. Impacts Grids for each of the three scenarios developed to simulate potential conservation and urbanization conditions at three time periods in the future: 2020, 2040, and 2060. Scenario 1 is designed to simulate the future with the continuation of current trends of urbanization and conservation. Scenarios 2 and 3 vary the amount of conservation, largely due varying policy simulations for fee simple vs. conservation easements, and the degree of densification used in the urbanization scenarios. Changes in overall impacts were calculated based on scenarios through the three time steps, and impacts to focal species were assessed -- with land cover or land use changes considered negative (although in some case could be positive, such as increases in marsh for marsh wrens, and conservation is considered a positive change. Conservation Target Models were developed for a subset of the focal species, whereby prioritization of habitat, based on predicted habitat use and projected impacts, was calculated in addition to direct impacts.
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