This project utilizes projected visualization of land cover conditions for the state of Florida at three future time periods. Simulated projected future conditions also vary by patterns in development, levels and types of conservation, and sea level rise. These visualized scenarios afford the opportunity to examine a range of possible outcomes for land use and land cover, and use these scenarios to evaluate the impacts on potential habitat distributions for focal species. For this project, focal species were centered within the Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge and impacts. The methodology for this project includes four major steps, which have been found to be effective in previous scenario analyses with state LCC partners. The first is a thorough update of climate and urbanization models used in the scenarios. The second is the presentation of a workshop based stakeholder contribution opportunity to determine a subset of focal species believed to be most at risk in this area of the state. The third is a spatiotemporal impact assessment based on spatial buffering and overlay of scenario-predicted land use or land cover changes due to urbanization and climate change. The fourth is a review of potential habitat impacts as modeled through the alternative scenarios, and the contrast of impacts to each species based on the different scenario assessment outcomes.
This project aims to examine the effects of potential future scenarios for the State of Florida that include variations in climate change (specifically sea level rise), urban growth, conservation funding, and conservation strategies. Combinations of these factors were organized into four basic scenarios that spanned realistic extremes for land use changes and conservation. The scenarios are: Scenario 1 Plan Trend, Scenario 2 Proactive public conservation, Scenario 3 Proactive Private Conservation, and Scenario 4 – Conservation-less Urban Sprawl. Scenario 4 provided a baseline for comparison. A model was used to simulate real estate markets, conservation strategy, and funding levels to output future land use, tenure and land cover by 2020, 2040, and 2060. Ancillary data, such as other conservation plans, were used to develop alternative scenarios.
These scenarios were used in conjunction with predicted habitat models for focal species whose existence centered on, or was tied to, the Florida Panther Wildlife Refuge. Focal species were determined through a workshop of stakeholders through discussion and ranking. The final list of focal species included the American swallow-tailed kite (Elanoides forficatus), Big Cypress fox squirrel (Sciurus niger avicennia), Eastern diamondback rattlesnake (Crotalus adamanteus), Eastern indigo snake (Drymarchon couperi), Florida black bear (Ursus americanus floridanus), Florida burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia), Florida panther (Puma concolor coryi) , Gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus), Mangrove cuckoo (Coccyzus minor), Red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis), Snowy plover (Charadrius nivosus), Southern chorus frog (Pseudacris nigrita), and Wading birds group: consisting of roseate spoonbill(Platalea ajaja), little blue heron (Egretta caerulea), reddish egret (Egretta rufescens), snowy egret (Egretta thula), tricolored heron (Egretta tricolor), and white ibis (Eudocimus albus).
Impacts were calculated through overlay of scenarios with predicted habitat distributions for the focal species. Most of the predicted habitat models were rule-based models originally derived in 2009 on 2003 land cover, except for a few recently updated models. Impacts were calculated based on land use changes (such as development or sea level rise - negative), and conservation (positive). These results represent a simplified examination of impacts and may require additional analyses for application to conservation decisions. Results do not consider, for example, habitat migration due to climate change, population dynamics of a species, positive habitat changes for a species, and a variety of other considerations for application of the model to smaller scale conservation decisions.
For further information, see the Final Report for this project: Impact Assessment for the Florida Panther National Wildlife Refuge Contextual Landscape May 2016.
