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Decision-Support for Migratory Bird Management in the Face of Uncertainty

System Change, Uncertainty, and Decision Making for Migratory Bird Management: Adaptation for Non-stationarity in System Dynamics
Principal Investigator
James Lyons

Dates

Start Date
2017-12-01
End Date
2021-09-30
Release Date
2017

Summary

Migratory birds are responding to changes in climate in complex and sometimes unpredictable ways. The timing of breeding and migration typically coincide with the periods of peak food availability; however, these peaks are shifting as temperatures and precipitation patterns change, resulting in a mismatch in the timing of key events. The degree to which this mismatch is impacting migratory birds varies among species and regions, creating a major source of uncertainty for managers. The goal of this project is to develop tools to support migratory bird management decision-making in the face of uncertain future climate and land use conditions. In order to identify and implement the most effective management strategies, decision-makers [...]

Child Items (3)

Contacts

Principal Investigator :
James Lyons
Co-Investigator :
Michael Runge
Funding Agency :
NCCWSC
CMS Group :
Climate Adaptation Science Centers (CASC) Program

Attached Files

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CommonEiders_AK_KristineSowl_FWS.jpg
“Common Eiders - Credit: Kristine Sowl, FWS”
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Purpose

Decision making for management of public natural resources is a forward-looking enterprise: to identify and implement the most effective actions it is necessary to predict the outcomes of management strategies and future environmental conditions. The overall goal of this project is to develop tools to improve decision making under uncertainty about changes in climate, land use, and coupled human-natural systems. These analyses will inform decision making in three areas of migratory bird management: land acquisition, harvest management, and allowable take of migratory birds.

Project Extension

parts
typeTechnical Summary
valueDecision making for natural resource management often relies on the assumption of a relatively stable system in which the effects of both stressors and management strategies can be predicted, and are not changing over time. Human and natural systems are governed by dynamic processes and there is increasing evidence that these processes are no longer stationary. One implication of this realization is that the best available science and empirical observations of the past may represent conditions that no longer exist and have little relevance to future conditions. The overall goal of this project is to develop tools to improve decision making under uncertainty about climate and system change. These analyses will inform decision making in three areas of migratory bird management: land acquisition, harvest management, and allowable take of migratory birds. This project will identify key uncertainty affecting migratory bird management in these three decision making frameworks and provide a research prioritization that will identify the most productive areas of investigation for USGS and other research scientists. We will first articulate and evaluate a suite of hypotheses about how climate change is likely to affect migratory birds and how these impacts may affect specific management decisions to acquire public lands, set harvest regulations for waterfowl, and permit allowable take of migratory birds. Next we will conduct a qualitative value of information analysis that will identify which of the areas of uncertainty related to climate and other system change has greatest potential effects on management decision making and greatest potential for reduction. We will accomplish this in part using a workshop with migratory bird managers and scientists with expertise in migratory bird ecology. From these analyses, we will prioritize scientific investigations about climate change and migratory birds and set a research agenda for USGS and other research scientists to improve management decision making.
projectStatusIn Progress

Common Eiders - Credit: Kristine Sowl, FWS
Common Eiders - Credit: Kristine Sowl, FWS

Map

Spatial Services

ScienceBase WMS

Communities

  • National CASC
  • National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers

Tags

Provenance

Additional Information

Identifiers

Type Scheme Key
RegistrationUUID NCCWSC 358db41c-a7c6-460c-a234-3224791dce20
StampID NCCWSC NCCWSC17-LJ1298

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