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Jeremy Littell

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We developed ecologically based climate‐fire projections for the western United States. Using a finer ecological classification and fire‐relevant climate predictors, we created statistical models linking climate and wildfire area burned for ecosections, which are geographic delineations based on biophysical variables. The results indicate a gradient from purely fuel‐limited (antecedent positive water balance anomalies or negative energy balance anomalies) to purely flammability‐limited (negative water balance anomalies or positive energy balance anomalies) fire regimes across ecosections. Although there are other influences (such as human ignitions and management) on fire occurrence and area burned, seasonal climate...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Earth's Future
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Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation; Tags: Conservation Biology
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We propose a collaborative project with the USGS, Wyoming State Climate Office, USFWS, USFS, and the NPS whereby we will assemble and maintain long-term records of climate from key stations in and around the Great Northern LCC and subject these records to a rigorous series of QA/QC procedures. Where appropriate we will use best available practices to infill missing data, and we will develop station histories (e.g., details of station moves, instrumentation changes, etc.) as a context for interpreting these records. We will then rigorously analyze patterns of long-term (50-100 years) variability and trends in these datasets, and provide summaries designed to meet the needs of non-climate specialists working in the...
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These files include climatological summaries of downscaled historical and projected decadal average monthly snowfall equivalent ("SWE", in millimeters), the ratio of snowfall equivalent to precipitation, and future change in snowfall for October-March at 771-meter spatial resolution across the state of Alaska. **Derived snow variables and summaries. Data are for summary October to March Alaska climatologies for:** 1) historical and future snowfall equivalent ("SWE"), produced by multiplying snow-day fraction by decadal average monthly precipitation and summing over 6 months from October to March to estimate the total SWE on April 1. 2) historical and future ratio of SWE to precipitation ("SFEtoP"), SFEtoP is the...
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