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Alexa J. McKerrow

We developed a spatially explicit model that simulated future southern pine beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis, SPB) dynamics and pine forest management for a real landscape over 60 years to inform regional forest management. The SPB has a considerable effect on forest dynamics in the Southeastern United States, especially in loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) stands that are managed for timber production. Regional outbreaks of SPB occur in bursts resulting in elimination of entire stands and major economic loss. These outbreaks are often interspersed with decades of inactivity, making long-term modeling of SPB dynamics challenging. Forest management techniques, including thinning, have proven effective and are often recommended...
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The dataset includes ecoregion specific species distribution models for 149 common fluvial fishes of the Conterminous U.S. Species models were developed for fluvial fishes considered common and native in each of the nine EPA Wadeable Streams Assessment program aquatic ecoregions (Herlihy et al. 2008) in which the species occurred. Common native species were identified as being geographically widespread and relatively abundant within ecoregions and utilize a wide variety of habitat types. Boosted regression tree models were used to develop presence/absence predictions for each of the National Hydrography Plus Dataset Version 1.0 (NHDPlusV1) stream reaches. The text files provided can be linked to the NHDPlusV1 data...
Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the...
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