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Michael C Runge

Research Ecologist

Eastern Ecological Science Center

Office Phone: 301-497-5748
ORCID: 0000-0002-8081-536X

PTX - Gabrielson Office
12100 Beech Forest Road
Laurel , MD 20708

Supervisor: Julien Martin
Abstract (from Biological Reviews): In response to global habitat loss, many governmental and non‐governmental organizations have implemented land acquisition programs to protect critical habitats permanently for priority species. The ability of these protected areas to meet future management objectives may be compromised if the effects of climate change are not considered in acquisition decisions. Unfortunately, the effects of climate change on ecological systems are complex and plagued by uncertainty, making it difficult for organizations to prioritize research needs to improve decision‐making. Herein, we demonstrate the use of qualitative value of information analysis to identify and prioritize which sources...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Abstract (from The Journal of Wildlife Management): Wildlife populations are experiencing shifting dynamics due to climate and landscape change. Management policies that fail to account for non-stationary dynamics may fail to achieve management objectives. We establish a framework for understanding optimal strategies for managing a theoretical harvested population under non-stationarity. Building from harvest theory, we develop scenarios representing changes in population growth rate () or carrying capacity () and derive time-dependent optimal harvest policies using stochastic dynamic programming. We then evaluate the cost of falsely assuming stationarity by comparing the outcomes of forward projections in which...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Executive Summary (from U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1472): The mission of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Adaptation Science Center is to provide actionable, management-relevant research on climate change effects on ecosystems and wildlife to U.S. Department of the Interior bureaus. Providing this kind of useful scientific information requires understanding how natural-resource managers make decisions and identifying research priorities that support those decision-making processes. Migratory bird management and conservation of migratory bird habitat are central components of the U.S. Department of the Interior’s mission. In particular, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has an intensive, complex...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
This data release presents the data, JAGS models, and R code used to manipulate data and to produce results and figures presented in the USGS Open File Report, "Decision-Support Framework for Linking Regional-Scale Management Actions to Continental-Scale Conservation of Wide-Ranging Species, ( The zip folder is provided so that other can reproduce results from the integrated population model, inspect model structure and posterior simulations, conduct analyses not present in the report, and use and modify the code. Raw source data can be sourced from the USGS Bird Banding Laboratory, USFWS Surveys and Monitoring Branch, National Oceanic and Atmospheric administration, and Ducks Unlimited...
Our ability to effectively manage natural resources is founded in an understanding of how our actions and the environment influence populations, communities, and ecosystems. Current practices use monitoring data from the past to determine key ecological relationships and make predictions about the future with the assumption that those relationships will remain constant. However, many natural systems are undergoing rapid changes due to external factors including climate change, urbanization, and energy development, leading to a situation in which our observations of the past are poor predictors of the future. Ignoring such changes could lead to management decisions that are sub-optimal at best or detrimental at worst....
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