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Paul C Selmants

Research Physical Scientist

Western Geographic Science Center

Office Phone: 650-439-2273
ORCID: 0000-0001-6211-3957

Supervisor: Kristin B Byrd
This research focuses on understanding the rates, causes, and consequences of land change across a range of geographic and temporal scales. Our emphasis is on developing alternative future projections and quantifying the impact on environmental systems, in particular, the role of land-use change on ecosystem carbon dynamics. This project supports the development of the Land-use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model. LUCAS tracks changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impacts on ecosystem carbon storage and flux by combining: A State-and-Transition Simulation Model (STSM) to simulate changes in land-use across a range of geographic scales. A Stock and Flow Model to track...
Abstract (from Environmental Research Letters): The State of Hawai'i passed legislation to be carbon neutral by 2045, a goal that will partly depend on carbon sequestration by terrestrial ecosystems. However, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the future direction and magnitude of the land carbon sink in the Hawaiian Islands. We used the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS), a spatially explicit stochastic simulation model that integrates landscape change and carbon gain-loss, to assess how projected future changes in climate and land use will influence ecosystem carbon balance in the Hawaiian Islands under all combinations of two radiative forcing scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) and two land use...
Categories: Publication; Types: Citation
Scenario-based simulation model projections of land use change, ecosystem carbon stocks, and ecosystem carbon fluxes for the State of California from 2001-2101 using the SyncroSim software framework, see for software documentation. We explored four land-use scenarios and two radiative forcing scenarios (e.g. Representative Concentration Pathways; RCPs) as simulated by four earth system models (i.e. climate models). Results can be used to understand the drivers of change in ecosystem carbon storage over short, medium, and long (e.g. 100 year) time intervals. See Sleeter et al. (2019) Global Change Biology (doi: 10.1111/gcb.14677) for detailed descriptions of...
This data series provides tabular output from a series of modeling simulations for the State of California. The methods and results of this research are described in detail in Sleeter et al. (2019). We used the LUCAS model to project changes in ecosystem carbon balance resulting from land use and land use change, climate change, and ecosystem disturbances such as wildfire and drought. The model was run at a 1-km spatial resolution on an annual timestep. We simulated 32 unique scenarios, consisting of 4 land-use scenarios and 2 radiative forcing scenarios as simulated by 4 global climate models. For each scenario, we ran 100 Monte Carlo realizations of the model. Additional details describing the modeling effort...
We summarized annual remote sensing land cover classifications from the U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Monitoring, Assessment, and Projection (LCMAP) annual time series to characterize forest change across the conterminous United States (CONUS) for the years 1985-2020. The raster output includes a map where each pixel is given an integer value based on the number of years in which it was classified as forest across the annual LCMAP time series. Values of 36 indicate the pixel was classified as forest across all years while a value of 0 indicates forests (tree cover) was never detected during the time series.
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